This Total Jumped Three Points, and Sean Payton Is the Reason Why

Same weekend, same league, two completely different preseason philosophies — and the totals markets are treating them accordingly.

This total opened at 38.5 and has been bet up to 40.5-41.5 since. Denver is favored by 6 to 6.5, with a -230 to -242 moneyline. The driver is straightforward: the Broncos put up 27 points in their Week 1 preseason win at Atlanta, with backups doing real work in the second half, and Sean Payton has a long track record of coaching preseason games like they count.

That's the direct opposite approach from the Chiefs-Buccaneers game covered separately this weekend, where Andy Reid has been explicit that Kansas City won't be competing for wins in August. Same slate, two coaches with opposite philosophies, and the markets have moved to reflect both — Denver's total up, Kansas City's spread blown out in the other direction.

Same weekend, opposite coaching approaches to preseason — and the totals markets are already telling you which is which.

Green Bay isn't just standing there either: the Packers led the league in yards per play in the red zone last season and had the most sacks in Goal-to-Go situations, meaning their backups running that same system have real scoring equity even in a losing effort.

The total has already moved three points to reflect Payton's approach, which is the same caution as the Chiefs piece: a real, verifiable driver, but one the market has already substantially priced. Worth knowing the why before laying more chalk on top of it.